A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
